Saturday, October 21, 2006

New world order

New world order – as a result of civilisation clashes

World politics entered a new phase after 9/11 world trade centre bombings. Two visions have taken the centre stage in this new phase. Each of these visions catches aspects of the emerging reality.

Any new world order historically has been preceded by chaos and conflicts. The fundamental source of conflict in this new phase our world has entered will be on two primary fronts one being ideological (religion) and other being economic. The dominant of these factors would be cultural which is akin to ideological. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations of whose examples we are seeing it be in Middle East, Kashmir, Iraq, some call this jihad and other call this terrorism. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.

Civilization is a cultural entity, is thus the highest cultural grouping of people. Civilization identity will be increasingly important in the future, and the world will be shaped in large measure by the interactions among seven or eight major civilizations. These include Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American and possibly African civilization. The most important conflicts of the future will occur along the cultural fault lines separating these civilizations from one another and in particular we are in the beginning of a greater conflict between the Western and Islamic world.
Why is the conflict? Primarily differences among civilizations are not only real; they are basic. Civilizations are differentiated from each other by history, language, culture, tradition and, most important, religion. The people of different civilizations have different views on the relationship with God. These differences are the product of centuries of suspicion and audacity which stems from the misinterpretations of the word of god and will not disappear soon. They are far more fundamental and deep rooted than when compared to differences among political ideologies and political regimes.
In much of the world religion has moved in to fill this gap, often in the form of movements that are labelled fundamentalist." Such movements are found in Western Christianity, Judaism, Buddhism and Hinduism, as well as in Islam. In most countries and most religions the people active in fundamentalist movements are young, college-educated, middle- class technicians, professionals and business persons.
West is at a peak of power. At the same time, perhaps as a result, a return to the roots phenomenon is occurring among non-Western civilizations. Increasingly one hears references to trends toward a turning inward and "Asianization" in Japan, the end of the Nehru legacy and the "Hinduization" of India, the failure of Western ideas of socialism and nationalism and hence "re-Islamization" of the Middle East, and now a debate over Westernization versus Russianization in the former USSR. A West at the peak of its power confronts non-Wests that increasingly have the desire, the will and the resources to shape the world in non-Western ways.
Conflict along the fault line between Western and Islamic civilizations has been going on for 1,300 years. After World War II, the West, in turn, began to retreat; the colonial empires disappeared; first Arab nationalism and then Islamic fundamentalism manifested themselves; the West became heavily dependent on the Persian Gulf countries for its energy; the oil-rich Muslim countries became money-rich and, when they wished to, weapons-rich. Several wars occurred between Arabs and Israel (created by the West). British and French forces invaded Egypt in 1956; American forces went into Lebanon in 1958; subsequently American forces returned to Lebanon, attacked Libya, and engaged in various military encounters with Iran; Arab and Islamic terrorists, supported by at least three Middle Eastern governments, employed the weapon of the weak and bombed Western planes and installations and seized Western hostages. This warfare between Arabs and the West culminated in 1990, when the United States sent a massive army to the Persian Gulf to defend some Arab countries against aggression by another. This centuries-old military interaction between the West and Islam is unlikely to decline. It could become more virulent. The Gulf War left some Arabs feeling proud that Saddam Hussein had attacked Israel and stood up to the West. It also left many feeling humiliated and resentful of the West's military presence in the Persian Gulf, the West's overwhelming military dominance, and their apparent inability to shape their own destiny. Many Arab countries, in addition to the oil exporters, are reaching levels of economic and social development where autocratic forms of government become inappropriate and efforts to introduce democracy become stronger. Some openings in Arab political systems have already occurred. The principal beneficiaries of these openings have been Islamist movements. In the Arab world, in short, Western democracy strengthens anti-Western political forces. This may be a passing phenomenon, but it surely complicates relations between Islamic countries and the West.
The conflict of civilizations is deeply rooted elsewhere in Asia, though not on religious lines for now, but clearly showing sings of religious unrest. The historic clash between Muslims and Hindus in the subcontinent manifests itself now not only in the rivalry between Pakistan and India but also in intensifying religious strife within India between increasingly ultra right wing Hindu groups and India's substantial Muslim minority. The destruction of Babri Mazjid in Dec 92 brought to the fore the issue of whether India will remain a secular democratic state or become a Hindu one, and ever since then there is an ongoing struggle between secularists on one side and fundamental groups on the other side.

It is in the sweep of the Islamic nations from Maghreb to Pakistan that the struggle for a new world order will begin.

Monday, October 16, 2006

Nuclear Club - Is this false security


Nuclear World - The debate continues on two fronts Security and Energy

Friday, October 13, 2006

Contemporary British – Indian politics: and a lesson for us

In the span of 45days British politics has seen a yearly gala of political conventions. Starting from leadership race of fringe right wing conservatives (euro sceptics) in the form of UKIP, moving onto the liberal movement (Liberal Democrats) of British politics synonyms to third front of Indian politics, to the ruling Labour party where we saw the incumbent Prime Minister giving his farewell speech and would be PMs making a pitch for leadership race and finally Tory party convention which saw their leader firmly seated to bring back Tories to power.

Now, you may ask what is so special about these political party conventions, as the same happens in India and that too in plenty and great pomp and glory both in terms of people attending the conventions and also in terms of grandeur.
The answer is there is a fundamental differences on two accounts one being the conventions are attended by those die hard party loyalists and members right from the block level upwards and the other is of even greater importance for us to take note of is these party conventions primarily discuss not just the leadership issue, but also in thread bare on different issues and policies that needs to be addressed and has impact on the country at large.

Let’s take an analogy to extrapolate on the differences between Indian and British polity.
Ruling party: Labour party in govt in UK = UPA in India
Main Opposition: Tory party in main opposition = NDA
Third front: Lib Democrats = SP+ other parties and can include Left front as well

Ruling party:
With the spectacular farewell speech probably Tony Blair made party want to have more of him, but the political die had been cast, he was explicitly made to say when he would be bowing out of office by deft political mechanisations. But this was just one piece of the convention, where the majority of time was spent on explaining govt policies, just to list education reforms, foreign policy, home and security (all ministers addressed the conventions as per their ministerial duties).
On the contrary in India, ruling party skirts controversies day in and day out an need to be bailed out by PM or the party president . Policy decisions are made without any logic and sometimes even the cabinet gets to know at it in the nth minute. No say of party cadres in terms of decision making. Though Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh have duties cut out, there still seems to be lack of co-ordination between party and govt, and there are a huge ignorance levels and communication gap between party cadres and party leaders and that to govt ministers on all major issues.
The lesson we should learn here is party conventions are not meant for pomp and glorification of party leadership by sycophants, rather it should be meant to put it across to the party workers govt policies as these are the foot soldiers who shall garner votes for the party leadership (charisma works once or twice, but ground level workers are needed for party to make a impact).

Main Opposition:
Probably here I can draw more similarities and you can conclude if there are worth being applauded, but there are precise lessons our main opposition needs to take note and act upon.
Similarities being, “Less or No policy talk”, quick to jump on hypes and sensational news to give out sound bytes (to keep oneself in news rather than any thing significant), new leadership, skirt issues of significance by playing to public mood. Party heavy weights are consigned to backroom role.
Difference being: democracy is not held to ransom inside parliament, no walk outs or abstinence, discuss issues thread bare according to the parliamentary norms. Have strong performers in the parliament in terms of shadowing the govt, which is missing in Indian political system

Third front: have their fair share of problems, probably in India, the 3rs front is more politically potent not with new ideas but based on opportunistic alliances and by making use of all possible trick to get to power.

If India in the century wants to make its present felt in the world order there needs to be improvements not just in the economy and infrastructure, but also political leadership of the country needs to take a step back and make the necessary reforms.
Here the famed Indian middle class can play a pivotal role to shape up the India polity, to make it more transparent, accountable and visionary.

To reiterate, India needs a political environment where policies are made my politicians with them representing the pulse of the Indian public and keeping Indian interests at large. Making use of parliament to make and debate policies thread bare and not to indulge in petty media sound bytes. Only with mature and dynamic political leadership can we build a brighter India.

Thus “Need of the hour = Mature Political leadership + change in attitude of public towards polity”